KNOWING THE POT ODDS
What are you going to do if you do not have the best hand right now but some chances to get it later on? When will you call a bet and when not?
This kind of decision is easy for a player, who is familiar with the concept of pot odds. To know when to fold and when not you have to ask yourself one question: How many cards are in the deck to give you the best hand?
When you look at some players at PacificPoker and BetssonPoker you will often see players that needs for example a certain card to complete their straight, there are only four cards in the deck that make their straight and they are calling and calling, just hoping that this card will come. Obviously they have no clue about pot odds.
A typical decision is when you have a flush draw. Imagine you have two hearts and the flop comes two more hearts. How big is your probability to hit the flush?
Well, lets count the "outs". Outs refer to the number of cards remaining in the deck that make you the winning hand. In this case you need to think like this: There are 13 hearts, and 4 hearts are already dealt. There are 9 hearts left to hit the flush, so you have 9 outs. This means on the flop you have a 37% probability to hit the flush, on the turn only 21%.
Another example: You hold 77 and the flop comes KQ5. A player has raised and now you have to decide. It is very likely that this player holds a King or at least a Queen, in both cases the only card that help you to get the best hand is another 7. Since there are only two more Sevens you just have two outs. On the flop it means your probability to hit the trips is about 9%, on the turn only 5%, with other words your chances to hit trips are about 10 to 1 on the flop and 20 to 1 on the turn to win this hand.
You dont have to calculate the exact numbers. Once you have a good feeling for the (approximate) odds, you will be an unbeatable player. You will always make the right decision.
The easiest concept to determine your chances is the rule of 2&4. When you know the number of outs you can easily calculate the (approx.) chances of hitting your hand.
On Flop: Outs X 4 = probability(%)
On Turn: Outs X 2 = probability(%)
If you want to call a bet with a flush draw, use the pot odds to evaluate your chances. Look how much you can win if you hit the flush and then decide if it is worth to call the bet. Use the rule of 2&4 or the chart below as the basis for your decisions:
2 Outs = 9% on flop / 5% on turn
3 Outs = 13% on flop / 7% on turn
4 Outs = 18% on flop / 9% on turn
5 Outs = 20% on flop / 11% on turn
6 Outs = 24% on flop / 14% on turn
8 Outs = 32% on flop / 18% on turn
9 Outs = 37% on flop / 21% on turn
12 Outs = 45% on flop / 27% on turn
15 Outs = 54% on flop / 34% on turn
21 Outs = 67% on flop / 48% on turn
|
